博瑞客服 2007-8-7 13:52
高盛称高通胀率将使中国经济“软着陆”难以实现
<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">中国的通胀预期被国际机构一再调高。日前高盛发布研究报告指出，中国通胀水平近期将到达</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">5.1%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">的危险水平，其警告说，中国若不采取严厉的货币调控措施，将会使目前过热的经济实现“软着陆”更加艰难。高盛中国首席经济学家梁红表示，如果中国货币调控措施被进一步延迟，那么消费价格指数和资产价格上涨可能进一步加剧，届时，过热的经济实现“软着陆”就将变得更加困难。梁红表示，通货膨胀加速上升的势头快于预期，这主要是因为相对于需求和物价的迅猛增长，货币政策调整的力度明显不足，如今政策调整已经更加严重地滞后于经济周期。梁红说，如果果断的货币调控措施仍不推出，短期内的通货膨胀率很有可能突破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">5%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">，并进一步上升。更重要的是，由于通货膨胀预期已经变得不稳定，物价上升的步伐可能进一步加速，猪肉价格的上涨迅速传导至其他食品领域便是明证。她表示，出台严厉的货币调控措施的风险也已上升。如果通货膨胀率已经突破</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体;">5%</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">，并且有加速上涨的趋势，有关中国经济是否过热的争论可能很快就会淡出视野，取而代之的是对中国经济将出现“软着陆”、“硬着陆”、还是“比较硬的着陆”的热议。</span>