博瑞客服 2007-8-9 12:50
谢国忠称大量金融机构对衍生品错误定价误导投资者
<span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">全球流动性过剩的原因何在？著名投资人士谢国忠认为，信用条件的变化可能比储蓄率的波动更重要。除了低收益率国债，本轮经济周期中的信用价差</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">credit spread</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">也低得异乎寻常。国债是最安全的资产，因为政府有税收作为履行债务的保证。由其他主体发行的债券，则根据不能履行债务的风险大小被评为若干等级。某一特定级别的债券和国债之间的利率差额被称作信用价差。对于非政府发行的债券的最高级为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">AAA</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">，最低为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">BBB</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">。任何低于</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">BBB</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">级的债券都可以被称作垃圾债。上世纪</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">90</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">年代，被穆迪评为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">AAA</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">级的公司债收益率通常较美国国债高</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">145</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">个基点，最高为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">2002</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">10</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">月时的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">327</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">个基点。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">2007</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">1</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">月，这一差距已缩小到仅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">65</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">个基点。信用价差的缩小在低评级债券上表现得更为明显。这种风险溢价的缩小在相当程度上抵消了美联储升息带来的紧缩效应。信用价差缩小是怎么实现的？答案在衍生品市场的繁荣，无论风险是在表面上还是在实际上被对冲了，这些衍生品都刺激了投资者对风险资产的需求，并在总体上降低了市场的风险溢价。不过值得注意的是，谢国忠似乎并不认为衍生品能够真的分散风险。他指出，绝大多数时候，风险分散都更接近于一种感觉而不是现实。很多衍生品的低流动性也导致它们被金融机构错误地定价，这些机构等于在故意误导投资者，其背后可能是一个巨大的骗局。</span>